I guess you can see right now of the bubble we are in. We have both: a huge surge in AI and big tech stocks, and a real risk where geopolitics — especially anything that affects Taiwan — could change the whole tech supply chain overnight. That combination makes markets fragile. If you own property, stocks, or crypto, you should know how these forces connect and what to do.
QUICK NEWS I’M WATCHING
🟠 China’s military shows training grounds around Taiwan’s capital — that’s a real sign of risk to Taiwan and global tech supply chains.
🟠 AI has driven big tech valuations higher; many firms rely on Taiwan for advanced chips given TSMC, the main chip manufacturer in the world is in Taiwan.
🟠 Current Big Debt levels and credit flows still matter. Big expansions of credit often lead to the expensive top of property cycles.
Source: New York Times
THE BIG PICTURE
The big picture I’m seeing is this. In every cycle bull run and peak like we have now, banks and lenders make borrowing easy which prop up prices for assets — especially land and houses.
The 18 Year Real Estate Cycle
And at the same time, as rates get lower and lower, people start to search for yield and they start to take on riskier investments like stocks, real estate, and crypto. New tech (like AI) becomes the perfect investment since the return is insanely high, companies are all blue chips. And as always, this investment is only focused toward a few big companies because of their economies of scale and unfair advantage. That concentration makes markets more fragile.
With such concentration, every nation wants a piece of it. And that piece is now concentrated in Taiwan, the capital of AI chip semiconductors. That’s why right now, wars, blockades, or even threats around places like Taiwan can break supply chains and sequentially the whole global stock market.