Hi all,
I first learned about a long running market pattern that people have watched for more than 150 years which has helped me make over $400k in my early 20s, and I want to explain how it works in plain words and how you can use it. I will also show simple checks you can do on your own and how I mix this pattern with other checks so I am not caught by surprise
WHAT IS THIS 150 YEAR OLD MARKET PATTERN
What I call the old pattern is a cycle idea that was made by a market watcher in the late eighteen hundreds called Samuel Benner. He believed prices and events repeat in time and that you could draw a repeating curve that lines up with many big booms and big drops over many years like 1929, 1989, 1999, 2008 and 2020. People have compared that old curve to real history and found it lines up with many big market tops and bottoms through the last one hundred and fifty years.
The curve shows years when things are very hot and risky and years when things are cheap and good to buy.
The curve has three levels:
The top level shows the worst crashes and big panics
The middle level shows milder price peaks where you might sell to lock gains
The bottom level shows times when prices are low and a good time to buy
HOW IT WOULD HELP A LONG TERM INVESTOR
If you could follow the curve roughly you would sell around the hot times and hold cash or safer things. Then when the curve goes low you buy back in and hold until the next high. If done well this simple idea could turn a much better long term return than staying fully invested the whole time. But it is not a magic map and it has limits.
First this pattern is rarely exact It can be off by a year or two so you have to allow wiggle room.
Second many people never hear of the pattern so it does not make everyone rich
Third markets change with new rules, wars, new products, and new money so a pattern from a long time ago can be helpful but not perfect
If a cycle says a peak is coming in 18 months, I start slowly trimming risk. I will move some money to safer things like bonds or cash. I also write down target entry prices for when the market falls so I know where I will add back later. The key is to move slowly not to guess a single top.